Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 9.066840 10.663495 12.411784 14.461974 16.793754 19.356603 22.379650
2025-01-26 6.947315 9.205937 11.928534 15.421512 19.750158 24.902462 31.459567
2025-02-02 5.494812 8.070143 11.437820 16.090147 22.265347 30.086906 40.634112
2025-02-09 4.492978 7.224164 11.056654 16.692874 24.610868 35.157266 50.048217
2025-02-16 3.597292 6.299369 10.347742 16.649888 25.962764 38.925763 57.969568
2025-02-23 2.836532 5.396741 9.481033 16.187948 26.572291 41.616523 64.517416
2025-03-02 2.217994 4.580421 8.586878 15.510696 26.711431 43.550900 70.032004
2025-03-09 1.837898 4.090599 8.127408 15.426351 27.694051 46.735060 77.518761
2025-03-16 1.505519 3.612731 7.600953 15.137294 28.278447 49.302715 84.190276
2025-03-23 1.369840 3.494829 7.697421 15.921438 30.680452 54.854028 95.778883
2025-03-30 1.184621 3.230147 7.471001 16.082985 32.011199 58.743146 104.942364
2025-04-06 1.008488 2.944270 7.154329 16.026517 32.932603 61.991223 113.229335
2025-04-13 0.857625 2.689165 6.874218 16.032738 34.015958 65.670608 122.605880
2025-04-20 0.817788 2.705789 7.181289 17.250645 37.458570 73.645546 139.666594
2025-04-27 0.750186 2.633069 7.278356 18.046014 40.164177 80.499140 155.200618
2025-05-04 0.682881 2.544119 7.322956 18.731316 42.705717 87.206104 170.826904
2025-05-11 0.584594 2.336841 7.050222 18.690932 43.798483 91.346152 182.166616
2025-05-18 0.479865 2.076046 6.596713 18.183403 43.887366 93.622521 190.291793
2025-05-25 0.383665 1.808547 6.072423 17.436201 43.394791 94.749941 196.368482
2025-06-01 0.326883 1.659297 5.837408 17.343268 44.272802 98.531120 207.476279
2025-06-08 0.271897 1.495389 5.528263 17.023933 44.620243 101.284027 216.786192
2025-06-15 0.256989 1.488640 5.679882 17.890273 47.671737 109.547494 236.857802
2025-06-22 0.226171 1.402261 5.573096 18.068679 49.168859 114.757066 251.307155